Monday, 12 November 2007

 

Japan's Bonds Gain; Yield Falls to Lowest Since February 2006

This is taken from bloomberg, with the market volatility out there its good to keep in touch with what is happening. If you check the economic calendar you get an idea of just how busy this week is.


Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese bonds gained, pushing 10- year yields to the lowest since February 2006, on speculation central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui will signal plans to keep borrowing costs unchanged in coming months.

Benchmark debt advanced for a fifth day as mounting losses related to U.S. subprime mortgages set off an eight-day decline in Japanese stocks. The slump in equities outweighed a government report today that showed third-quarter economic growth beat economists' expectations.

``GDP is not giving the market much relief,'' said Hitomi Kimura, a bond strategist in Tokyo at JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., one of 26 primary dealers obliged to bid at government debt sales. ``The yields may fall to below 1.5 percent because of the worries people have about writedowns and the bank results in the first quarter next year.''

The yield on the 1.7 percent bond due September 2017 fell 2 basis points to 1.495 percent, the lowest since Feb. 22, 2006, at 11:05 a.m. in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation's largest interdealer debt broker.

Ten-year bond futures for December delivery gained 0.07 to 136.76 on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 0.2 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

The world's second-largest economy expanded an annualized 2.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a revised 1.6 percent contraction in the previous period, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.8 percent increase.

Rate Meeting

The central bank will keep borrowing costs on hold at its two-day meeting ending today, according to all 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Fukui last week said ``downside risks'' for the economy are rising as fallout from the U.S. mortgage crisis lingers. Board member Atsushi Mizuno was the sole advocate for a rate increase at the past five meetings.

``The market is watching if Mizuno is going to oppose,'' said JPMorgan's Kimura. ``There is a 50-50 chance of him not opposing which could move the market.''

The proportion of economists forecasting that the Bank of Japan will increase rates to 0.75 percent in March fell to 58 percent last week, according to a Bloomberg survey, from 71 percent in a previous survey on Oct. 30.

The central bank may raise rates to 0.75 percent by the end of March, according to the weighted average forecast of a Bloomberg News survey of economists and analysts. The estimate puts a heavier weighting on more recent forecasts.

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