Thursday, 19 July 2007
what if...
this is something that has been plaguing me for a bit, the old what if...
What if....GBPJPY continues to, say 300, or even 350 over the next year.
What if....i had a small account (say 5k) running a grid on high risk, a close mesh, 1000 positions.
If i am right... would you ever have to work again? the cumulative effect of adding all the positions over time
If i am wrong, say and GBPJPY goes to 150. Yes you would get wiped out.
Ive never got round to calculating it, if anyone would like to do it, im betting your account would
Basically this would provide a great bet.If the odds are 50/50 on it going up or down long term (which they are not, i am being generous), but the gain from a correct bet is significantly higher than the loss from a wrong bet, that presents a very attractive risk/reward ratio.
If someone is good with excel please do a calculation for this, im interested!
.. 10 mins later...
curiosity got the better of me so i just made an excel...
i had it increasing lot size 10% per trade to simulate increased lot size, i didnt do anything about swap.
If it went to 350, you would have $5 million, a run to 300 was $437,917. Food for thought anyway, and ive satisified my curiosity on this for the time being.
What if....GBPJPY continues to, say 300, or even 350 over the next year.
What if....i had a small account (say 5k) running a grid on high risk, a close mesh, 1000 positions.
If i am right... would you ever have to work again? the cumulative effect of adding all the positions over time
If i am wrong, say and GBPJPY goes to 150. Yes you would get wiped out.
Ive never got round to calculating it, if anyone would like to do it, im betting your account would
Basically this would provide a great bet.If the odds are 50/50 on it going up or down long term (which they are not, i am being generous), but the gain from a correct bet is significantly higher than the loss from a wrong bet, that presents a very attractive risk/reward ratio.
If someone is good with excel please do a calculation for this, im interested!
.. 10 mins later...
curiosity got the better of me so i just made an excel...
i had it increasing lot size 10% per trade to simulate increased lot size, i didnt do anything about swap.
If it went to 350, you would have $5 million, a run to 300 was $437,917. Food for thought anyway, and ive satisified my curiosity on this for the time being.
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